Harwld

Kalshi NFL Picks Today

Today's NFL prediction-market analysis from Harwld. Compare market-implied probabilities with Harwld model probabilities and identify the markets showing the largest measurable differences.

UPDATED Oct 16, 5:02 PM ETUPDATED Oct 16, 5:00 PM ET

No NFL games kick off today. The board below shows the next scheduled slate instead, so nothing here is presented as a game that is not actually on the calendar.

Today's Games and Market Prices

Today's games with market-implied probability
NFL MARKETMARKET PROBHarwld PROBDIFFERENCEWINNING EDGEHarwld SIGNAL
Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars
Sun, Oct 18 · 9:30 AM ET
—🔒🔒🔒
Pittsburgh Steelers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sun, Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET
—🔒🔒🔒
New York Jets at New England Patriots
Sun, Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET
—🔒🔒🔒
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns
Sun, Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET
—🔒🔒🔒
Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons
Sun, Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET
—🔒🔒🔒
New Orleans Saints at New York Giants
Sun, Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET
—🔒🔒🔒
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts
Sun, Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET
—🔒🔒🔒
Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles
Sun, Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET
—🔒🔒🔒
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams
Sun, Oct 18 · 4:05 PM ET
—🔒🔒🔒
Buffalo Bills at Las Vegas Raiders
Sun, Oct 18 · 4:25 PM ET
—🔒🔒🔒
Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs
Sun, Oct 18 · 4:25 PM ET
—🔒🔒🔒
Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers
Sun, Oct 18 · 8:20 PM ET
—🔒🔒🔒

Highest Harwld Today

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TODAY'S RANKED HarwldS

Which market Harwld rates as today's best value — and the price at which it stops being value — is part of membership. Some days the honest answer is PASS, and members see that too.

  • Harwld FAIR VALUE — What Harwld calculates the outcome is truly worth, before any market price.
  • MAX BUY PRICE — The highest price where the edge still exists. Above it, Harwld says wait.
  • AUTO-BUY PRICE — A lower, better entry price if the market drifts down to it.
  • AUTO-SELL PRICE — The profit-taking zone once a position has done its work.
  • CURRENT PRICE READ — Whether today's market price is cheap, fair or already too expensive.

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Biggest Market Movers

No stored line movement of half a point or more has been recorded on this slate.

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Public pages show what Harwld believes and how strong the difference is. Position-level timing stays inside the app.

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Questions About Today's Picks

What are the best Kalshi NFL picks today?
Harwld ranks today's games by Winning Edge Score, which combines the gap between model probability and market-implied probability with confidence and market friction. The tables above are that ranking. If no market clears Harwld's threshold, the honest answer is that there is no qualified pick today.
How do you read Kalshi NFL odds?
A YES contract trading around $0.63 generally represents a market-implied probability of roughly 63%, subject to fees, spread and market mechanics. Compare that number to Harwld's probability for the same outcome.
Should I buy YES or NO?
That depends on which side the price is misvaluing, not on which team is better. Harwld publishes the model probability and the market probability so the comparison is visible; the decision, sizing and risk are yours.
Can Kalshi NFL prices change before kickoff?
Yes. Prices move on injury news, weather, lineup changes and order flow, which is why Harwld timestamps every model run and market snapshot rather than implying the page is always live.