NFL Predictions, Market Probabilities & Winning Edge
QB1 Edge analyzes NFL games and prediction-market pricing to find where the market-implied probability differs from QB1's independent model probability. Every number on this page comes from a stored model run and a stored market snapshot — nothing is estimated for presentation, and a difference in probability is an analytical observation, not a promise of profit.
Current NFL Market Board
Explore QB1 NFL Coverage
- Kalshi NFL PredictionsHow QB1 prices NFL prediction-market contracts, plus the current market table.
- NFL Picks TodayToday's kickoffs ranked by QB1 edge and largest market disagreement.
- NFL Picks This WeekThe full weekly slate with QB1 signals and confidence.
- NFL GamesEvery upcoming matchup with its own crawlable prediction page.
- NFL Prediction MarketsWhat prediction markets are and how contract prices map to probability.
- NFL Market ReportLargest market moves, highest QB1 edge and games to watch.
- NFL TeamsTeam pages with upcoming games, model probabilities and recent signals.
- QB1 Track RecordLocked pregame predictions graded against final scores, wins and losses.
Futures, Awards, Win Totals & Player Markets
QB1's validated model currently covers game markets: winner, spread and total. Season-long NFL futures, award markets, team win totals and player markets are not yet modeled, so QB1 does not publish numbers for them. Those pages will go live only when the model that prices them has been validated — inventing a probability to fill a page would break the one rule QB1 will not bend. See the graded track record for what QB1 does publish.
Learn the Vocabulary
- How Kalshi NFL Markets WorkYES/NO contracts, settlement and what a cent price represents.
- Implied ProbabilityTurning prices and American odds into probabilities you can compare.
- Winning Edge ScoreHow the 0-100 QB1 rating is built and what each band means.
- QB1 MethodologyElo ratings, simulation, market blending, confidence and known limits.