NFL Predictions, Market Probabilities & Winning Edge
Harwld analyzes NFL games and prediction-market pricing to find where the market-implied probability differs from Harwld's independent model probability. Every number on this page comes from a stored model run and a stored market snapshot — nothing is estimated for presentation, and a difference in probability is an analytical observation, not a promise of profit.
Current NFL Market Board
| NFL MARKET | MARKET PROB | Harwld PROB | DIFFERENCE | WINNING EDGE | Harwld SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars Sun, Oct 18 · 9:30 AM ET | — | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Pittsburgh Steelers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Sun, Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET | — | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| New York Jets at New England Patriots Sun, Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET | — | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns Sun, Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET | — | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons Sun, Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET | — | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| New Orleans Saints at New York Giants Sun, Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET | — | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts Sun, Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET | — | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles Sun, Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET | — | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams Sun, Oct 18 · 4:05 PM ET | — | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Buffalo Bills at Las Vegas Raiders Sun, Oct 18 · 4:25 PM ET | — | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs Sun, Oct 18 · 4:25 PM ET | — | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers Sun, Oct 18 · 8:20 PM ET | — | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Washington Commanders at San Francisco 49ers Mon, Oct 19 · 8:15 PM ET | — | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 |
Explore Harwld NFL Coverage
- Kalshi NFL PredictionsHow Harwld prices NFL prediction-market contracts, plus the current market table.
- NFL Picks TodayToday's kickoffs ranked by Harwld edge and largest market disagreement.
- NFL Picks This WeekThe full weekly slate with Harwld signals and confidence.
- NFL GamesEvery upcoming matchup with its own crawlable prediction page.
- NFL Prediction MarketsWhat prediction markets are and how contract prices map to probability.
- NFL Market ReportLargest market moves, highest Harwld edge and games to watch.
- NFL TeamsTeam pages with upcoming games, model probabilities and recent signals.
- Harwld Track RecordLocked pregame predictions graded against final scores, wins and losses.
Futures, Awards, Win Totals & Player Markets
Harwld's validated model currently covers game markets: winner, spread and total. Season-long NFL futures, award markets, team win totals and player markets are not yet modeled, so Harwld does not publish numbers for them. Those pages will go live only when the model that prices them has been validated — inventing a probability to fill a page would break the one rule Harwld will not bend. See the graded track record for what Harwld does publish.
Learn the Vocabulary
- How Kalshi NFL Markets WorkYES/NO contracts, settlement and what a cent price represents.
- Implied ProbabilityTurning prices and American odds into probabilities you can compare.
- Winning Edge ScoreHow the 0-100 Harwld rating is built and what each band means.
- Harwld MethodologyElo ratings, simulation, market blending, confidence and known limits.