NFL Prediction Markets: Pricing, Probability & Edge
An NFL prediction market quotes a contract that settles at $1 if an outcome happens and $0 if it does not. Because of that structure, the price is a probability statement: a YES contract trading around $0.63 generally represents a market-implied probability of roughly 63%, subject to fees, bid-ask spread and market mechanics. QB1 Edge builds its own probability for the same outcome and reports the difference.
What Are Kalshi NFL Predictions?
They are prediction-market contracts on NFL outcomes — game winners, spreads and totals — where the traded price expresses the crowd's probability estimate. QB1 is an independent analytics platform and is not affiliated with or endorsed by Kalshi; it reads public pricing and compares it to its own model.
How Do NFL Prediction Markets Work?
- A market is opened for a specific, objectively settleable NFL outcome.
- Participants buy YES or NO at a price between 1c and 99c.
- The traded price moves as news, injuries, weather and money arrive.
- At settlement, the correct side is worth $1 and the other side is worth $0.
- Fees and spread mean a small modeled difference is not necessarily a real one.
Current NFL Market vs QB1 Model
UPDATED Aug 27, 8:20 AM ET
QB1 Vocabulary
- What is QB1 Probability?
- QB1 Probability is QB1's own estimate that an outcome happens, produced by the Elo power rating and a 10,000-trial Monte Carlo simulation of the game. It is calculated independently of the market price and is never adjusted to look closer to it.
- What is Winning Edge?
- The Winning Edge Score is a 0-100 rating that combines the gap between QB1 Probability and market-implied probability with model confidence, data quality and transaction friction. A large probability gap on a low-confidence game scores lower than a moderate gap on a high-confidence game.
- What does BUY YES mean?
- It describes a market where QB1's probability is meaningfully higher than the price implies, meaning the YES side looks underpriced relative to the model. It is an analytical description of pricing, not instruction or advice.
- What does BUY NO mean?
- The mirror case: the price implies a higher probability than QB1's model supports, so the NO side is the underpriced one.
- What does PASS mean?
- The difference is too small to survive fees, spread and model uncertainty. PASS is a genuine output and most markets, most weeks, are a PASS.
- What is an entry zone?
- A price range in which the modeled difference still exists. Above that range the advantage has already been priced in. QB1 publishes explicit entry zones to Pro members inside the app.
- What is a target exit?
- A price at which most of the modeled difference has been absorbed by the market, so continuing to hold is no longer supported by the original reason for the position.
- Why can QB1 disagree with the market?
- Prices reflect participant sentiment, order flow, public bias and stale information as well as genuine forecasting. A model rebuilt from final scores weights those things differently — and sometimes the market is right and QB1 is wrong, which is why every prediction is graded publicly.
People Also Ask
What does 60 cents mean on a prediction market?
A 60c YES price implies the market thinks the outcome is roughly 60% likely. If it happens you receive $1 per contract; if it does not you receive nothing. Fees and spread shift the true break-even slightly above the raw price.
What is prediction-market edge?
The difference between your probability estimate and the probability the price implies, measured after transaction costs. QB1 only calls a difference actionable once it clears its own minimum threshold for that market type and time to expiry.
How does QB1 calculate NFL probabilities?
Walk-forward Elo ratings rebuilt from real final scores feed a 10,000-trial simulation of each game. Read the full methodology.