Kalshi NFL Markets & Prediction Market Probabilities

Prediction markets quote NFL games as contracts priced from 1¢ to 99¢. A price of 62¢ implies roughly a 62% chance the outcome happens. QB1 builds an independent probability from Elo power ratings and 10,000-trial simulations, then measures the gap between that probability and the quoted price. QB1 is independent and not affiliated with Kalshi.

UPDATED Aug 27, 8:20 AM ET

How the math works

Price to probability: a YES contract at 62¢ implies a 62% market probability; the matching NO side implies 38%.
Edge: QB1's probability minus the market's implied probability, after transaction friction is subtracted.
Buy low / sell high: an edge is only actionable inside an entry price zone, and it decays as kickoff approaches and information gets priced in.
PASS is an answer: most games are priced fairly. QB1 says so rather than manufacturing a play.

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This week's NFL market comparison

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PITVSBUF

Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills

Thu, Aug 27 · 7:00 PM ET

Kalshi NFL Markets & Prediction Market Probabilities

How the math works

This week's NFL market comparison

Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills

New England Patriots at Cleveland Browns

San Francisco 49ers at Las Vegas Raiders

Los Angeles Rams at Los Angeles Chargers

Washington Commanders at Baltimore Ravens

Atlanta Falcons at Miami Dolphins

Houston Texans at Carolina Panthers

New York Giants at New York Jets

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Jacksonville Jaguars

Seattle Seahawks at Kansas City Chiefs

Arizona Cardinals at Green Bay Packers

Cincinnati Bengals at Philadelphia Eagles

New Orleans Saints at Dallas Cowboys

Minnesota Vikings at Denver Broncos

Detroit Lions at Indianapolis Colts

Chicago Bears at Tennessee Titans

See calibrated market pricing