Kalshi NFL Markets & Prediction Market Probabilities

Prediction markets quote NFL games as contracts priced from 1¢ to 99¢. A price of 62¢ implies roughly a 62% chance the outcome happens. Harwld builds an independent probability from Elo power ratings and 10,000-trial simulations, then measures the gap between that probability and the quoted price. Harwld is independent and not affiliated with Kalshi.

UPDATED Oct 15, 7:47 PM ET

How the math works

Price to probability: a YES contract at 62¢ implies a 62% market probability; the matching NO side implies 38%.
Edge: Harwld's probability minus the market's implied probability, after transaction friction is subtracted.
Buy low / sell high: an edge is only actionable inside an entry price zone, and it decays as kickoff approaches and information gets priced in.
PASS is an answer: most games are priced fairly. Harwld says so rather than manufacturing a play.

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This week's NFL market comparison

Seattle Seahawks at Denver Broncos

Thu, Oct 15 · 8:15 PM ET

Harwld PICK: LOADING
WIN PROB: LOADING
FAIR SPREAD: LOADING

FINAL SEA 14 — DEN 17

Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars

Sun, Oct 18 · 9:30 AM ET

Harwld PICK: LOADING
WIN PROB: LOADING
FAIR SPREAD: LOADING

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Pittsburgh Steelers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Sun, Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET

Harwld PICK: LOADING
WIN PROB: LOADING
FAIR SPREAD: LOADING

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New York Jets at New England Patriots

Sun, Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET

Harwld PICK: LOADING
WIN PROB: LOADING
FAIR SPREAD: LOADING

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Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns

Sun, Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET

Harwld PICK: LOADING
WIN PROB: LOADING
FAIR SPREAD: LOADING

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Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons

Sun, Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET

Harwld PICK: LOADING
WIN PROB: LOADING
FAIR SPREAD: LOADING

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New Orleans Saints at New York Giants

Sun, Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET

Harwld PICK: LOADING
WIN PROB: LOADING
FAIR SPREAD: LOADING

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Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts

Sun, Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET

Harwld PICK: LOADING
WIN PROB: LOADING
FAIR SPREAD: LOADING

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Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles

Sun, Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET

Harwld PICK: LOADING
WIN PROB: LOADING
FAIR SPREAD: LOADING

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Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams

Sun, Oct 18 · 4:05 PM ET

Harwld PICK: LOADING
WIN PROB: LOADING
FAIR SPREAD: LOADING

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Buffalo Bills at Las Vegas Raiders

Sun, Oct 18 · 4:25 PM ET

Harwld PICK: LOADING
WIN PROB: LOADING
FAIR SPREAD: LOADING

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Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs

Sun, Oct 18 · 4:25 PM ET

Harwld PICK: LOADING
WIN PROB: LOADING
FAIR SPREAD: LOADING

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Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers

Sun, Oct 18 · 8:20 PM ET

Harwld PICK: LOADING
WIN PROB: LOADING
FAIR SPREAD: LOADING

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Washington Commanders at San Francisco 49ers

Mon, Oct 19 · 8:15 PM ET

Harwld PICK: LOADING
WIN PROB: LOADING
FAIR SPREAD: LOADING

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See calibrated market pricing

Members get calibrated market probability, fair price, entry zones, edge decay and BUY / WAIT / AVOID guidance for every NFL market.

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