Kalshi NFL Picks This Week
2026 Preseason Wk 4: the full NFL slate with QB1's model probability beside the market-implied probability for the same outcome. Games are listed whether or not QB1 sees an opportunity, so the page shows the whole week rather than a curated highlight reel.
UPDATED Aug 27, 8:20 AM ET
Full Weekly Market Board
Highest QB1 Edge This Week
MEMBERS ONLY
THIS WEEK'S RANKED QB1 EDGES
Which games carry the biggest gap between QB1's probability and the market price — and what to pay for each — is part of membership.
- QB1 FAIR VALUE — What QB1 calculates the outcome is truly worth, before any market price.
- MAX BUY PRICE — The highest price where the edge still exists. Above it, QB1 says wait.
- AUTO-BUY PRICE — A lower, better entry price if the market drifts down to it.
- AUTO-SELL PRICE — The profit-taking zone once a position has done its work.
- CURRENT PRICE READ — Whether today's market price is cheap, fair or already too expensive.
QB1 is analysis and tracking only. It never places a trade or a bet for you, and PASS is a perfectly good answer.
Line Movement to Watch
| NFL MARKET | MARKET PROB | QB1 PROB | DIFFERENCE | WINNING EDGE | QB1 SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Rams at Los Angeles Chargers Thu, Aug 27 · 10:00 PM ET | — | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Arizona Cardinals at Green Bay Packers Fri, Aug 28 · 8:00 PM ET | — | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| Minnesota Vikings at Denver Broncos Fri, Aug 28 · 9:00 PM ET | — | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| New England Patriots at Cleveland Browns Thu, Aug 27 · 8:00 PM ET | — | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | |
| San Francisco 49ers at Las Vegas Raiders Thu, Aug 27 · 8:00 PM ET | — | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 |
Pro-Only Detail
- 🔒 ENTRY ZONE BY MARKET — QB1 PRO
- 🔒 TARGET EXIT — QB1 PRO
- 🔒 EDGE DECAY CURVE — QB1 PRO
- 🔒 QB1 MARKET RADAR — QB1 PRO
Related QB1 Pages
- Kalshi NFL picks today
- 2026 Preseason Wk 4 game-by-game predictions
- NFL prediction market report
- QB1 graded track record
Weekly Market Questions
How are NFL prediction markets different from sportsbooks?
A prediction market quotes a contract price between 1c and 99c that settles at $1 or $0, and you trade against other participants. A sportsbook quotes odds it sets itself and takes the other side. The practical difference for analysis is that a market price converts directly to a probability.
When should a prediction-market position be exited?
Generally when the price has moved far enough that most of the modeled difference is already reflected in it, or when new information invalidates the original reason. QB1 Pro publishes explicit target-exit levels inside the app.
How accurate are NFL prediction models?
Good NFL models are right on a clear majority of games but are wrong often enough that a single week says little. QB1 stores every pregame prediction with a timestamp and grades it against the final score on the track record page.